Up to 87,000 Canadian jobs at risk from new levy
Business groups warn of "immediate and significant" fallout for small firms as Ontario, Quebec and B.C. face the steepest job losses, putting layoff planning and employee support at the top of HR's agenda
As many as 87,000 Canadian jobs are at risk because of the United States' new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, according to an analysis flagging electronics, plastics, wood products and machinery as the hardest-hit sectors — disruption that puts workforce planning and layoff strategy directly on HR's agenda.
The tariffs, in effect since Aug. 21, apply to more than 500 categories of Canadian exports under three White House proclamations targeting provincial alcohol sale restrictions, Canada's dairy protections and the auto industry, according to CBC News. The job-loss estimate comes from University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, based on Statistics Canada data, CTV News reported.
Scale of the job losses
Tombe's analysis estimates 52,000 jobs are directly at risk, with another 35,000 affected indirectly through Canadian suppliers, for a combined 87,000 nationally, CTV News reported. "That will mean less output in Canada and therefore less employment in those exporting firms," Tombe told CTV News.
Ontario faces the largest losses at 36,100, followed by Quebec at 18,300 and B.C. at 11,200, with machinery, electronics, plastics and rubber hit hardest, CTV News reported.
Economist Colin Mang said the impact will likely spread beyond directly tariffed sectors given interprovincial trade ties, adding job losses are also likely in "Alberta, Saskatchewan (and) the Maritimes... because we'll have this broader reduction in economic activity."
Sector and provincial exposure
Electronics leads by dollar value, with more than $4 billion US in exports subject to the new duties, followed by plastics at roughly $3 billion US and beverages at about $900 million US, according to CBC News. B.C. is the most exposed province, with tariffed wood, paper and circuit board components representing more than 13% of its U.S. exports; Quebec follows at about 10%, while Alberta and Saskatchewan sit at about 1% each, CBC News reported.
|
Province |
Share of exports under tariff threat |
Estimated jobs at risk |
|
British Columbia |
More than 13% of total U.S. exports (highest of any province) |
11,200 |
|
Ontario |
Not separately reported by export share |
36,100 (largest of any province) |
|
Quebec |
About 10% of total U.S. exports |
18,300 |
|
Alberta |
About 1% of total U.S. exports |
Not separately quantified; indirect spillover expected |
|
Saskatchewan |
About 1% of total U.S. exports |
Not separately quantified; indirect spillover expected |
|
Sector |
Nature of exposure |
Estimated value / scale |
|
Electronics |
Largest tariffed category by dollar value; includes circuit boards and controllers |
More than $4 billion US in exports |
|
Plastics and packaging |
Includes bottles, floor coverings and household items |
About $3 billion US in exports |
|
Wood, paper and forestry products |
Concentrated in B.C. and Quebec; affects forestry, furniture and textiles |
About half of B.C./Quebec exports in these sectors affected |
|
Machinery and equipment |
Flagged by CFIB as a top small-business exposure category; also a top job-loss sector |
87,000 jobs at risk nationally across this and other tariffed sectors |
|
Beverages |
Includes wine and other alcohol products |
About $900 million US in exports |
|
Food and beverages, arts/jewellery/creative products |
Flagged by CFIB as top small-exporter exposure categories |
40% of small exporters affected; nearly one-third expect revenue drops of 50% or more |
Small exporters face particular strain. CFIB president Dan Kelly said 40% of small exporters sell products now subject to the tariffs, with nearly one-third expecting revenues to fall by half or more. "Small firms most affected include those selling machinery and equipment, wood and building products, plastic and packaging, food and beverages and arts, jewellery and creative products," Kelly said in an Aug. 22 statement.
Industry and stakeholder reaction
Kelly warned Canada's own retaliatory tariffs will also strain small firms, since more than half import from the U.S. compared with roughly 20% that export. "The burden of retaliatory tariffs ultimately affects consumers, but first to be hit are the small firms that import," he said, adding $25 billion in earlier federal supports "failed to deliver any meaningful relief to Canadian SMEs."
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Canada's largest business association, said in a separate Aug. 22 statement it would mobilize its network "to brace for impact and make the best of a bad situation." Chamber president and CEO Candace Laing said the group opposes tariffs generally, but any Canadian response should be "surgically, strategically and in close consultation with business."
Toronto retailer Jill Rochon, owner of Jill and the Beanstalk, told CTV News she may have to lay off staff as tariffs and Canada's counter-tariffs raise her costs. "If I had to let them go, I would have to let them go," she said. "I feel very strongly for them, so I'd have a really hard time doing that."
Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised aid for affected businesses, but labour groups say worker supports must follow too, CTV News reported. Bea Bruske of the Canadian Labour Congress called for "extending employment insurance... and expanding work-sharing opportunities so that workers can stay connected to the workplace."
Carney also said retaliatory tariffs on US goods will take effect on Sept. 8. The tit-for-tat escalation has left HR executives across manufacturing, forestry and trade-exposed sectors urgently reassessing headcount, hiring plans and contingency strategies.
