Why your best candidate on paper might be your worst hire

The straight-A candidate is out. AI literacy is overrated. Here's what employers actually want

Why your best candidate on paper might be your worst hire

Picture two candidates for the same entry-level role. The first has a 4.0 GPA, academic honors, and a shelf full of campus awards. The second has a B average, a summer internship in the same industry, and six months of project-based work. According to a sweeping new study of nearly 1,500 senior executives and talent leaders, the straight-A graduate with no work history is the least desirable hire of the two.

The findings come from the Strada Institute for the Future of Work, which surveyed executives and HR professionals across industries and company sizes to understand how entry-level hiring is evolving in the age of AI. The results challenge some deeply held assumptions about what makes a strong candidate, and they carry pointed implications for senior HR executives whose hiring criteria may not have caught up with what their own hiring managers actually value.

The GPA paradox

Andrew Hanson, senior director of employer alignment at Strada Education Foundation, says the preference for experience over academic achievement comes down to a concept educators call tacit knowledge.

"You can think of it like riding a bicycle. Try explaining to somebody how to ride a bicycle. It is pretty difficult. But of course when you get on that bicycle, you know exactly what to do. You have built the muscle memory. The same kind of thing applies in a work-based context," he said.

Hanson points to grade inflation as another factor eroding the signal value of academic achievement. With so many students earning high marks, employers increasingly struggle to determine how rigorous a program actually was or how hard it was to earn an A.

"Once somebody has that six months, a year plus of work experience of actually being able to successfully execute in that work-based environment, that is just a better predictor of what they can do," he said.

READ MORE: April's jobs report revealed a hidden talent pool of 4.9 million

The study ranked seven candidate profiles, all holding a four-year degree. Employers most preferred candidates with direct work experience in a similar role, followed closely by those who'd completed an internship in the same industry, and those with project-based experience relevant to the position. A candidate with a 4.0 GPA and academic awards but no work history ranked dead last, behind even candidates who'd only worked outside their industry in roles like retail or food service.

AI literacy isn't the priority you think it is

If the experience finding is surprising, the AI literacy finding may be even more so. Employers ranked AI literacy dead last among eight key skills when evaluating entry-level candidates, scoring it a 3.5 out of 5 for importance. Critical thinking and communication both scored 4.3.

Hanson said the push for AI literacy is largely coming from one direction.

"There are a bunch of folks, and they tend to be from the tech sector, pushing this need to integrate AI literacy into the higher ed curriculum. And employers seem to be saying something entirely different," he said.

READ MORE: Is your job posting missing this key ingredient?

His interpretation is that if a candidate has strong foundational abilities, employers trust they'll be able to pick up the technical tools.

"As AI progresses, the skills required to use it, the bar is becoming much lower, where it is essentially just talking to another human," he said.

Hanson also questions how much AI is actually shifting employer expectations around skills.

"If you were to go back 10 years and ask employers to sort of rank the hierarchy of skills, I suspect it would look pretty similar to what we found. The hype machine might be just a little bit overrated in terms of how much AI is changing the skill needs of employers," he said.

AI is growing entry-level jobs

Amid widespread concern that AI will displace junior workers, the Strada data offers a more nuanced picture. Nearly three times as many senior talent leaders expect AI to increase entry-level hiring in 2026 than to reduce it. Among employers who've strategically integrated AI across their organizations, 59% say it's led to an increase in entry-level hiring. Those using AI more narrowly, primarily to automate routine tasks, are the ones most likely to be cutting headcount.

The nature of entry-level work is also shifting. More than 40% of employers report that AI has increased the analytical and judgment-based responsibilities assigned to their most junior employees, while a nearly identical share say it's reduced routine administrative tasks.

"Entry-level work is evolving more into a mid-level role, where AI is leveraged to automate a lot of the grunt work that used to characterize it," Hanson said.

What HR leaders should do differently

For organizations still relying on GPA cutoffs, prestige filters, or AI skills checklists in their applicant tracking systems, this research is a direct challenge. Hanson recommends moving toward performance-based assessments.

"Actually giving them a task that they would do on the job and seeing how well they do with it. That assesses those particular skills, critical thinking, communication, in a way that an academic transcript simply cannot," he said.

He's also careful not to dismiss the bachelor's degree entirely. It remains a useful proxy for foundational abilities, even when the major itself is unrelated to the job.

"Most of the things that people study for their bachelor's degrees are not related to their job or career, at least in a direct way, but it does a pretty good job of developing those foundational abilities," he said.

A degree still matters. But without relevant experience to back it up, it's not enough. And for companies that haven't updated their hiring criteria to reflect that, the cost can be significant.

"A bad hire is a super risky proposition," Hanson said. The time spent managing, coaching, and eventually replacing a poor fit adds up fast. "We are talking probably in the six figures, depending on the role. This is good for business if you can get really smart and thoughtful about this."

With AI reshaping entry-level work faster than most hiring processes have adapted, the Strada data raises an uncomfortable question for many organizations. Are the filters built into your hiring systems actually selecting for what your managers value, or working against it?

LATEST NEWS