Ottawa's pick for a 12-submarine fleet puts skilled trades capacity – and HR workforce planning – under the spotlight
Prime Minister Mark Carney travelled to Halifax on July 6, 2026, to announce the outcome of a years-long competition to build Canada's next fleet of submarines, with multiple outlets reporting that Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) had been selected over South Korea's Hanwha Ocean. The submarine program isexpected to run for decades, built on a domestic trades workforce that employers in adjacent sectors already describe as stretched to its limit.
The Royal Canadian Navy is looking to replace its aging Victoria-class submarines, only one of which is typically operational at any given time, according to CBC News. The full program – covering acquisition, operations and decades of maintenance – could reach roughly $100 billion over 30 years, per CBC and Globe and Mail estimates, with the submarines themselves valued at $20 billion to $30 billion.
Two very different job pitches
Both bidders leaned heavily on economic promises to win the contract. TKMS, in partnership with Norway, told Ottawa its bid would add $86 billion to Canadian GDP and generate more than 650,000 "job-years" of employment over the life of the agreement, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said in May, CBC News reported. A job-year, importantly, means one job sustained for one year – not 650,000 distinct positions. CBC News reported earlier that the company's near-term employment pledge was up to 50,000 jobs in Canada within the first five years.
Hanwha's competing offer promised more than $70 billion in trade and investment and roughly 25,000 jobs annually between 2026 and 2044, according to the Globe and Mail. With TKMS now the reported winner, Canadian employers connected to marine manufacturing, defence-adjacent supply chains, and skilled trades should expect the German-Norwegian program's job-year figures – not Hanwha's – to shape federal workforce and training conversations going forward.
A labour pool stretched thin
The bigger workforce story may not be the new jobs the deal promises, but the ones it will compete for. Irving Shipbuilding, which operates Halifax Shipyard and is simultaneously ramping up production of 15 new River-class destroyers, has warned Ottawa that a separate, privately operated submarine maintenance facility planned for the Halifax area risks pulling skilled tradespeople away from its existing workforce, according to Globe and Mail reporting.
Canada's domestic marine industry faces a projected shortfall of more than 8,000 workers by the end of the decade, with training institutions currently on pace to meet less than half of that demand, according to the Globe and Mail, citing a recent industry study. British Columbia Premier David Eby has separately called the province's shallow pool of skilled tradespeople a "severe constraint" on upcoming maritime programs.
What this means for workforce planners
The submarine program lands on top of a national skilled trades shortage that HR leaders across sectors are already managing. It compounds pressure highlighted in Ottawa's Team Canada Strong skills initiative, aimed at training up to 100,000 new tradespeople, and echoes staffing strain already visible in NAV Canada's ongoing air traffic controller shortage. It also sits alongside forecasts that Canada's construction sector alone will need 380,500 additional workers by 2034, a reminder that defence, construction and marine employers are increasingly drawing from the same shrinking pool of welders, pipefitters, electricians, and systems technicians.
Stephen Saideman, who holds the Paterson Chair in International Affairs at Carleton University, framed the underlying pressure to CBC News: "I think we already have a real crisis in our sub force of not being able to actually have a submarine out in the water for any length of time. We only have one, yet we have three oceans," said Saideman.
Employers competing for the same trades – whether in shipbuilding, construction, aviation or utilities – have a narrowing window to lock in apprenticeship pipelines, cross-training agreements and retention strategies before a decades-long government program pulls talent toward the waterfront.
