Coding hiring began sliding before ChatGPT, according to new study
Canadian employers pointing to artificial intelligence for slower entry-level hiring may be looking in the wrong place, with Statistics Canada data showing youth hiring fell furthest in jobs least exposed to AI, from 4.0% to 3.3%.
The figure covers employees aged 15 to 29 in occupations such as trades, comparing the six months leading up to November 2022, when ChatGPT launched, with the six months leading up to August 2026.
The October 28 study by Tahsin Mehdi and Marc Frenette, which used Labour Force Survey data from January 2006 onward, found no broad evidence that AI has led to substantial decreases in hiring or increases in job separation rates in Canada.
Forrester has described some AI-linked layoffs as “AI washing,” where firms attribute financially motivated cuts to future AI use.
Youth hiring in occupations highly exposed to and complementary with AI, such as doctors, nurses, teachers and engineers, edged down from 2.9% to 2.5%. In highly exposed but less complementary jobs, including financial analysts and data entry clerks, it slipped from 3.2% to 3.0%.
Hiring in coding-intensive occupations decreased from 2.5% to 1.9%. The rate reached a 15-year high of 5.8% in the six months leading up to November 2021 and started falling in early 2022, before ChatGPT’s release.
Exits hold steady
Youth job separation rates stayed around 2.2% in high-exposure, high-complementarity jobs, averaged roughly 2.9% in high-exposure, low-complementarity jobs and stabilized around 3.2% in low-exposure jobs.
Coding roles saw separations rise from 2.4% to 3.5%, though the trend was volatile, possibly due to a small sample.
The researchers said weak post-pandemic youth employment growth may stem primarily from slower hiring, a continuation of earlier trends, rather than faster job separations. Hiring rates for workers aged 30 to 49 and 50 to 64 were lower and more stable.
Several pressures on youth hiring
The study said it is unclear whether lower hiring stems from disruptive technology or from rapid population shifts, trade shocks and labor market adjustments after the post-pandemic recovery.
A May 2026 working paper from the University of Warwick, the London School of Economics and Oxford’s Ellison Institute of Technology, drawing on 243 million new-hire records from four countries including Canada, found AI’s effect on junior hiring largely collapsed once remote-work exposure was measured at the same time.
Statistics Canada reported that 19.2% of businesses used AI in the 12 months before its second-quarter 2026 survey, up from 12.2% a year earlier, while 40.0% said AI was not relevant to their goods or services.
Employment among Canadians aged 15 to 24 fell by 48,000, or 1.8%, in September, a second straight monthly decline, and the youth unemployment rate was little changed at 13.0%.
The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on October 28, its first increase since July 2023. A Canadian Federation of Independent Business survey found 22% of businesses expect to cut full-time staff, while 11% plan to hire.
Workforce planning implications
For HR leaders setting 2027 headcount plans, Statistics Canada’s early evidence indicates AI is one of several possible factors behind slower entry-level hiring.
A Robert Half survey of 1,365 Canadian hiring managers found 34% of employers that cut jobs during early AI adoption have reinstated those or similar roles, with 38% of them citing a greater-than-expected need for human oversight.
A Korn Ferry report found 81% of firms plan to increase early-career hiring over the next two years. It urged employers to redesign entry-level roles before automation removes important learning experiences.
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