Canada posted quarterly population decline, driven by fewer non-permanent residents and more deaths than births
Canada has entered unfamiliar demographic territory, posting a rare population decline at the end of 2025 as growth slowed sharply and the number of non-permanent residents fell across every province and territory, new figures from Statistics Canada show.
Preliminary estimates released March 18 put the national population at 41,472,081 on Jan. 1, 2026. That’s down 103,504 people, or 0.2 per cent, from Oct. 1, 2025 — marking a notable reversal from the rapid expansion seen just a couple of years ago, according to Statistics Canada’s latest edition of The Daily.
By comparison, Canada added 80,385 people (+0.2 per cent) in the final quarter of 2024 and 256,804 people (+0.6 per cent) in the same period of 2023. Even after upcoming revisions, StatCan says growth in late 2025 is expected to remain “well below” those earlier fourth-quarter gains.
For HR and talent leaders, the demographic snapshot is an early warning signal. A shrinking or slower-growing population, driven by fewer non-permanent residents and a negative natural increase, points to tighter long-term labour supply just as many organizations are still grappling with skills shortages.
Slower inflows of international students and workers may narrow traditional recruitment pipelines, while interprovincial trends — such as Alberta’s continued net gains and Ontario and Quebec’s losses — hint at shifting talent hot spots and emerging retention risks.
Rare annual decline in population
Looking at the full calendar year, the slowdown is even more striking. Preliminary numbers suggest Canada’s population shrank by 102,436 people (–0.2 per cent) between Jan. 1, 2025, and Jan. 1, 2026. Growth had already been losing steam at the start of 2025: an increase of 77,136 people from January to June was more than offset by losses totalling 179,572 in the second half of the year.
Statistics Canada says the overall population decrease “should be interpreted with caution,” noting that its demographic estimates are released in stages. The fourth-quarter figures are considered preliminary and will be updated as more complete data arrive, particularly around international migration.
Some of the apparent drop could be reversed if, for example, renewed work or study permits are issued after an earlier permit has expired, closing gaps that currently appear as population losses in the estimates.
Non-permanent residents drive downturn
The clearest driver of the fourth-quarter decline was a sharp drop in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs). Between Oct. 1, 2025, and Jan. 1, 2026, the NPR population is estimated to have fallen by 171,296 people, with every province and Yukon recording declines.
After peaking at 3,149,131 on Oct. 1, 2024, the number of non-permanent residents living in Canada declined steadily to 2,676,441 by Jan. 1, 2026. The decrease in late 2025 was “mainly attributable” to fewer people holding only a study permit, only a work permit, or both a work and study permit.
StatCan stresses that NPR counts are particularly subject to revision, in part because extensions to work and study permits may not be captured in time for preliminary releases. A recently announced immigration measure supporting workers and employers in Quebec, for example, could lead to higher final NPR numbers for 2025 and 2026 once all extensions are factored in.
The agency also cautions against directly comparing its NPR data with figures from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, since the two organizations use different concepts and data sources for temporary residents and asylum claimants.
Immigration cushions blow — but can’t reverse it
Permanent immigration continued to support Canada’s demographic base, even as overall growth slowed. Canada welcomed 83,168 new permanent immigrants in the fourth quarter of 2025, StatCan reports. That is down 19.6 per cent from the 103,438 newcomers admitted in the same quarter of 2024, but broadly aligned with Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s target for 2025.
Crucially, permanent immigration was the only positive component of population change in the quarter. Natural increase — births minus deaths — came in negative (–781), meaning more people died than were born in Canada over the three-month period. Combined with the steep drop in non-permanent residents, that left new immigrants as the sole demographic buffer preventing an even larger population decline.
Ontario remained the leading destination, taking in 42.3 per cent of all new immigrants (35,159 people) in the fourth quarter of 2025. Quebec was the only province to see more newcomers than a year earlier, welcoming 13,361 immigrants compared with 12,496 in the final quarter of 2024. All other provinces and Yukon admitted fewer immigrants year over year in the quarter.
Provincial winners and losers
Regionally, population change was far from uniform. From Oct. 1, 2025, to Jan. 1, 2026, British Columbia posted the steepest rate of decline (–0.4 per cent), while Prince Edward Island, Quebec and Ontario each saw their populations fall by 0.3 per cent.
Alberta stood out as the lone province or territory with a positive growth rate in the quarter, edging up 0.1 per cent, says StatCan. It also continued its run as Canada’s top net winner from interprovincial migration. For a 14th straight quarter, Alberta recorded the largest net gain from population exchanges with other provinces and territories, adding 3,684 people through interprovincial flows alone — down from 4,993 a year earlier, but still well ahead of British Columbia (+1,227) and Nova Scotia (+826), the only other jurisdictions to post net gains.
Ontario (–1,598) and Quebec (–1,579) both saw net losses to other provinces in the fourth quarter of 2025. Quebec’s outflow was larger than in the same quarter of 2024 (–1,093), while Ontario’s was somewhat smaller than the previous year (–2,082).
