November migration data shows arrivals sinking as departures soar
Experts across New Zealand are expressing concerns that the country's migration could turn negative this year amid sinking arrivals and rising departures, according to reports.
Data from Stats NZ revealed that there were 12,800 migrant arrivals and 10,600 departures in November 2024, leading to a monthly net migration gain of 2,200.
But this migration gain falls short of the 7,100 net gain recorded in November 2023, as arrivals were down 19% and departures were up 22%.
Brad Olsen, chief executive of Infometrics, warned that New Zealand's net migration could possibly go negative on a month-on-month basis this year amid declining net migration.
"Over the last six months, monthly net migration has averaged around 2,336 more people coming in than leaving each month," Olsen said as quoted by 1News.
"That's much lower than through 2023, when monthly net migration averaged over 10,000 more people coming into New Zealand than leaving, and also higher than in 2017-2018 before COVID-19 impacts hit the migration figures, when monthly net migration was over 4,000 per month."
Migrant arrivals are also slightly sinking amid the lack of available jobs in New Zealand, which workers are already competing for, according to Olsen.
"Meaning less need to bring in talent from overseas," he said.
Infometrics previously warned in October that annual net migration could turn negative in 2026/27 as migration flows shifted around again.
"That'd be consistent with net monthly outflows towards the end of 2025," Olsen said.
BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones echoed concerns about a possible downturn in migration figures.
"The monthly net migration figures are always pretty choppy and we're currently sailing not that far above zero at a trend net inflow of about 2,000 people per month," Jones said as quoted by 1News. "We could see that drop away a little as we head into the autumn and winter months."
He further emphasised the economy's vulnerability, noting that while population growth had masked some economic issues, the underlying economy remained weak.
"That speaks to just how soft the underbelly of the economy has been over the past couple of years," Jones said.
The remarks come amid "brain drain" worries in New Zealand, which Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston admitted was a "possibility," as the workers suffer from layoffs and receive better opportunities overseas.
