Job-seeker registrations more than doubled in October as layoffs mount. Experts explain how HR should support managers and remaining staff
Australia's so-called "redundancy season" has arrived early and hard, with new data from HR recruitment firm Samuels Donegan showing candidate registrations more than doubled in October 2026 as major employers including NAB, Canva and Telstra push through year-end restructures.
The firm recorded 493 candidate registrations in October, up 115 per cent from 229 in September. October's figure was roughly 3.5 times the firm's April–August monthly average of approximately 138 registrations, and nearly half of all registrations recorded between March and October 2026 landed in September and October alone.
November is often dubbed redundancy season in Australian workplaces: the period when organisations finalise headcount and structures for the year ahead, and when many employees learn their roles are going.
This year, the trend has played out against a run of high-profile cuts. NAB announced in October 2026 that it would cut up to 2,500 roles in a corporate overhaul, Canva has restructured around 1,271 roles – about 22 per cent of its workforce – and Telstra has continued a multi-year program of job reductions, while ANZ has been working through the 3,500 cuts it flagged in September 2025.
For HR leaders, the data raises two pressing questions: what the spike signals for the 2027 jobs market, and how organisations can manage restructures without damaging the people who stay.
Why redundancy season lands in November
Sarah Donegan, co-founder and managing director of Samuels Donegan, says the timing is largely driven by planning cycles. Although most Australian organisations run a July–June financial year, many multinationals and parent companies work to the calendar year, which means budgets, headcount and structures for the coming year are signed off in the final quarter.
Leaders also want to start January with the right team in place, she says, so new roles, replacements and restructures tend to land in October and November. Many businesses prefer to finalise change before the Christmas shutdown rather than leave staff uncertain over the break.
Candidates move to a similar rhythm. Donegan notes that many wait until bonuses are paid, or use the summer break to decide what's next, which is why January is typically so busy. Her advice to employers planning to hire early in 2027 is blunt: "If you're planning to hire early next year, the brief should be ready now."
What rising candidate activity signals for 2027
Donegan says several pressures are converging at once. Cost of living is pushing people towards more secure or better-paid work, and many are trying to get ahead of restructures rather than waiting to be caught in one. At the same time, there are fewer roles to compete for – she points to SEEK data showing job ads falling through 2026 while applications per ad reached record highs.
Some of that volume is driven by technology. Artificial intelligence (AI) tools allow candidates to apply for dozens of roles with very little effort, so a large applicant pool is not necessarily a strong one.
Looking to 2027, Donegan expects "a market that looks crowded but is still short on the right people, particularly experienced specialists". She also anticipates pent-up movement: many capable employees have stayed put for security and are likely to move once confidence returns.
Restructuring is not the same as improving
Donegan stresses there are legitimate reasons to restructure, such as removing duplication and simplifying how decisions get made. But she warns that headcount cuts and organisational improvement are not the same thing.
"The difference usually shows up in what happens to the people who stay," she says.
When organisations remove management layers or consolidate roles, the work and decisions don't necessarily disappear – they are often redistributed across fewer people. If leaders are being asked to manage larger teams and carry broader responsibilities, Donegan says organisations must make sure they have the capability, support and capacity to do so.
"A smaller workforce isn't automatically a more productive one. The real measure of a successful restructure isn't how many roles you've removed but whether the organisation is genuinely better equipped to perform afterwards."
Getting the redundancy process right
For Gazelle Kalk, associate director of content and training at employment relations firm Peninsula, the starting point for any restructure is making sure the redundancy is genuine.
Under the Fair Work Act 2009 (Cth), a genuine redundancy occurs when an employer no longer requires a job to be performed by anyone because of operational changes – such as restructuring, automation or reduced demand – and the employer has met any consultation obligations under an applicable modern award or enterprise agreement. A dismissal is also not a genuine redundancy if it would have been reasonable to redeploy the employee elsewhere in the business or an associated entity.
Kalk says employers need to be clear they are making a position redundant, not selecting a person for dismissal. Consultation and redeployment should be genuinely considered and well documented, which can significantly reduce legal risk if the decision is later challenged through an unfair dismissal claim. Recent Fair Work Commission decisions underline the point, including a case where the Commission rejected a childcare centre's redundancy after it reposted the role.
She urges employers to take a broad view when searching for redeployment options – reviewing current vacancies, upcoming roles and positions likely to become available, across all departments and any associated entities in the corporate group. As a separate Fair Work ruling shows, an engineer lost his redundancy pay after refusing redeployment, illustrating how central redeployment has become to the process.
Kalk also cautions against assuming redundancy is the cheapest option. For businesses with 15 or more employees, the combined cost of redundancy pay, notice, accrued leave entitlements and later recruitment and onboarding can be substantial. Where a downturn is expected to be temporary, she says redeployment, restructuring or reduced hours may deliver a better commercial outcome than losing experienced staff and rehiring when conditions improve.
The small business headcount trap
The 15-employee threshold matters for another reason. Under the Fair Work Act, small business employers (those with fewer than 15 employees) are exempt from paying redundancy pay under the National Employment Standards (NES). Kalk warns that crossing that threshold means a business is no longer a small business in the eyes of the law – and that regular and systematic casual employees, along with staff across associated entities, may count towards the total.
"Small businesses should always count their headcount before making redundancy decisions," she says.
Conversations, not templates
Kalk says redundancy conversations should be handled personally and respectfully rather than treated as a box-ticking exercise or delegated to AI-generated template letters. Employees should have a real opportunity to ask questions, understand the business reasons and provide feedback before any final decision is made.
Where several employees perform the same or substantially similar role, she recommends an objective skills matrix to demonstrate that selection was based on legitimate business needs rather than personal preference. Managers also need proper training, she adds, because even a genuine redundancy can attract unfair dismissal claims or general protections applications if consultation, communication or documentation fall short.
The hidden load on line managers
If the legal process is one side of redundancy season, the human toll on managers is the side that rarely gets discussed, according to leadership coach Leigh Morrison.
Morrison says one of the hardest parts of redundancy is that managers are often grieving themselves while being expected to support everyone else. They are caught between delivering commercial decisions they may have had little say in and caring for people they have worked alongside for years – often with as little as 24 hours' notice to process the news.
She recalls coaching a senior leader at a global tech company where decisions came from an overseas head office and some employees learned their roles were gone by email. The leader was grieving the loss of a team she had spent years building, while being expected to redistribute work, restore productivity within days and still meet commercial targets – all in the same week.
"When we fail to recognise that managers are experiencing these losses too, we risk asking them to lead others through something they haven't had the space to process themselves," Morrison says.
Answering "Are we safe?"
When teams ask whether another round is coming, Morrison says the temptation is to promise everything will be fine. But false reassurance can further damage trust that has already been shaken. Instead, she encourages leaders to acknowledge uncertainty: to share what they know today, what they don't know, and when they expect to have more information. Where information is confidential, managers should say so, rather than implying they know nothing.
She recommends short daily stand-ups – even 15 minutes over two to four weeks – to create a reliable rhythm of communication, even when there is nothing new to report.
"Trust isn't built by having all the answers. It's built by being honest, consistent and present, especially when the answers are difficult."
Grief and productivity are not competing priorities
Morrison argues that remaining employees lose more than a colleague – they may lose a friend, an ally, work they enjoyed or a sense of belonging. With one leader she coached, the team met daily for a month after the redundancies, then weekly, while agreeing on realistic priorities for the following fortnight rather than expecting the same output from a smaller, unsettled team.
She also flags a key warning sign for managers and HR leaders: believing they are personally responsible for how quickly their team recovers. There is a difference, she says, between being responsible to your people and feeling responsible for their emotions. Managers need their own support, whether through coaching, an Employee Assistance Program (EAP) or a confidential peer support group – something one organisation she consulted with set up specifically for managers going through a restructure.
What should HR do differently?
Both Kalk and Morrison say HR's role must extend well beyond the announcement. Kalk notes the post-restructure period can seriously affect morale and create psychosocial hazards – risks employers have a duty to manage under Australia's work health and safety laws, as outlined in Safe Work Australia's model Code of Practice on psychosocial hazards. She says HR leaders should quickly re-engage retained staff and be transparent about changes to workloads and structure.
Morrison goes further, urging HR and senior leaders to return to teams six or 12 months later to ask how people are really feeling. The first Christmas party without familiar faces, or a milestone once celebrated together, can bring back emotions people thought they had worked through.
"The restructure may be over for the organisation, but that doesn't mean it's over for the people," she says.
What employees facing redundancy should do
For workers caught up in this year's redundancy season, Donegan's first piece of advice is to remember that it is the role that has been made redundant, not the person – and that redundancy usually reflects cost pressure and business change, not performance.
Before signing anything, she recommends getting the details in writing – notice, redundancy pay, accrued leave and final day – and checking them against the employment contract, award or enterprise agreement and the Fair Work Ombudsman's redundancy pay guidance, seeking independent advice if something doesn't look right. Employees should also ask about outplacement, EAP counselling and time off for interviews during the notice period, and secure a reference while still working with their manager.
From there, she says, update your CV and LinkedIn, practise explaining the redundancy simply and without apology, and lean on your network and specialist recruiters – most good roles, in her view, are filled through conversations rather than job boards. Contract or temporary work can also be a smart bridge, keeping skills current and income steady while often leading to permanent roles.
For HR teams navigating the remainder of redundancy season, the message from all three experts is consistent: get the process right, support the managers delivering it, and don't assume the job is done once the last affected employee has left. For more on recent employment law decisions, see our coverage of how a missing step cost one employer its redundancy case.
