Industry expert and academic explains what organisations must do differently in 2026 and why most hiring struggles aren't what they seem
According to ManpowerGroup's Talent Shortage Survey 2025 released in January, 83 percent of employers in Singapore reported difficulty finding skilled talent, one of the highest figures in the region.
As 2025 draws to a close, many businesses are reviewing how that finding aligns with their current workforce realities.
But does that "83 percent" represent genuine skills scarcity in the market, or does it reflect something else: outdated role designs, weak attraction strategies, or organisations defaulting to "the market is dry" without examining their own practices?
To provide an evidence-based perspective on what the data reveals and what it obscures, HRD Asia spoke with Dr Kim-Lim Tan, senior lecturer at James Cook University Singapore.
Why single data sources mislead
Survey findings provide useful snapshots, but Tan cautions that treating them as definitive proof of talent scarcity ignores how data works.
"From a researcher's perspective, any reported data reflects a snapshot at a particular point in time. While it provides helpful insights, we should always consider the methodology and interpret the results accordingly," he explains.
Determining whether January's findings still hold requires checking if similar patterns emerge elsewhere.
"To determine whether report findings hold across time, it is essential to triangulate them with other data sources to see whether similar patterns emerge. In this case, we can look at the Ministry of Manpower's job vacancy statistics, which provide trends in job vacancies in Singapore over different years."
Each data source reveals different aspects of the labour market.
Real-time platforms like MyCareersFuture show what employers are actually hiring for right now, not what they reported struggling with months ago.
"Job postings on MyCareersFuture can identify emerging skill clusters or occupations showing persistent demand. These sources are helpful because they reflect employers' actual hiring behaviour."
Singapore's Shortage Occupation List adds strategic context by identifying which skills matter most for economic priorities.
"This list is developed based on the occupation's strategic importance to Singapore's economic priorities and the degree and nature of labour shortage," Tan notes.
Wage trends function as a litmus test for genuine scarcity. "Another interesting data point is wage growth. While this is not the first indicator we usually turn to when assessing a talent shortage, it can offer very revealing insights when carefully interpreted," Tan explains.
"When skills are genuinely scarce, we often observe that wages rise faster than in other professions."
If employers claim they cannot find talent but wages for those roles remain flat, the shortage claim deserves scrutiny.
"These behavioural indicators complement traditional labour-market statistics by showing how businesses and workers respond to talent scarcity. In evidence-based management, this kind of triangulation between complex data and market behaviour provides a more grounded understanding of the situation."
What Ministry of Manpower data reveals
Ministry of Manpower (MOM) data from later in 2025 shows patterns that complicate the January survey narrative.
"Recent MOM data suggests that the number of vacancies in Singapore has eased compared to the earlier months in 2025. Overall, the data show that the recruitment and resignation rates remained low and have declined over the years," Tan says.
"This trend is not surprising, as it reflects employees' general attitude toward staying on the job longer amid ongoing uncertainties across regions."
However, sector-specific patterns show volatility in growth areas. "Interestingly, the recent MOM report for the second quarter of 2025 also shows that, across the growth sectors, there is greater employee movement in and out. These partially confirm ManpowerGroup's earlier findings."
The interpretation matters more than any single number. "Hence, the key for any HR leader is to interpret different sets of data together," Tan explains.
"Suppose survey sentiment indicates volatility, but macro data shows stable employment. In that case, it may suggest that employers are competing within a narrower skills niche, a sign of specialisation rather than a shortage. Understanding this distinction helps businesses design more targeted workforce strategies."
Specialization versus shortage is not semantic hairsplitting. It determines whether the solution is building internal capability or competing harder for external talent.
The diagnostic question most leaders skip
When businesses struggle to hire, Tan argues they must ask one fundamental question before claiming a skills shortage exists.
"When businesses find it difficult to hire, leaders should first ask a fundamental question: Does the shortage truly exist in the external environment, or does it exist within our organisation?"
This distinction determines everything about the response.
"To me, this distinction matters greatly. A genuine market-level skills shortage is a structural issue. It reflects a mismatch between national or global supply and demand for specific competencies."
"An organisational-level shortage, on the other hand, is usually a symptom of internal misalignment. It could be due to outdated role designs, limited attraction strategies, or cultural barriers that make the organisation less appealing to the very talent it seeks," he adds.
Tan provides specific diagnostic questions to determine whether the issue is systemic or localized: Is there credible labour-market evidence? Do other businesses in the same industry face the same challenges? Is the external environment changing the nature of the job, making existing skills obsolete?
"If the data support these points, it is likely a systemic issue that requires collaborative efforts with institutions of higher learning and relevant ministries to address the labour shortfall and shape future pipelines," he explains.
Most situations involve both factors. "But in practice, the causes are seldom single-dimensional. In other words, most businesses face a combination of both," Tan notes.
"For instance, a lack of candidates skilled in green carbon trading can be due to both a shortage in Singapore and the organisation not putting forward an attractive employee value proposition."
The posture matters as much as the analysis. "The key is for leaders to approach the issue diagnostically, not defensively. Rather than defaulting to 'the market is dry,' they should integrate external data with internal insights to clearly identify which levers to pull, investing in capability building, rethinking roles, or forming new partnerships."
How false impressions form
Organisations often conclude talent is scarce based on insufficient evidence. Tan explains how perception distorts reality.
"Many businesses have false impressions of talent shortage without thoroughly examining objective evidence. For instance, businesses may draw false conclusions about a lack of qualified manpower when a position remains unfilled for an extended period."
The solution requires data discipline combined with psychological safety.
"To address this, leaders need to ensure they have sufficient data points to make informed decisions. Leaders who consciously pause to question their assumptions, asking, 'What evidence do we have for this?' will help shift conversations from emotion to analysis."
HR teams need permission to challenge prevailing narratives.
"At the same time, leaders should create a psychologically safe environment where honest opinions can be sought. This will help ensure the HR team feels comfortable challenging established narratives and can bring forward alternative explanations grounded in data," Tan explains.
Without this safety, organisations reinforce confirmation bias, where hiring difficulties automatically get interpreted as market shortage rather than internal failure.
Frameworks that support systematic planning
As companies plan for 2026, Singapore offers existing frameworks for workforce resilience and capability planning.
"In Singapore, one key reference framework is the Skills Demand for the Future Economy Report. This is a regular report that outlines the skills in demand based on local data and input from various industry partners," Tan says.
The job-skills portal centralises resources for workforce planning.
"Another reference is the job-skills portal, developed to provide a one-stop website with datasets, insights, dashboards, and algorithms to support individuals, enterprises, career development professionals, education and training partners, and agencies in making informed decisions on jobs and skills development within the Singapore economy."
Tripartite initiatives provide practical guidance. "To support businesses' resilience, several key initiatives have been spearheaded by the tripartite businesses to support local businesses. This includes Job Transformation Maps, which guide businesses in redesigning their jobs, as well as upskilling and reskilling workforces in this changing labour landscape," Tan notes.
Why analytics cultivate foresight
Workforce analytics improve decision quality, but their deeper value lies in building organisational learning.
"Analytics help leaders make informed decisions. Without analytics, many decisions could be made based on phenomena, which may not be entirely true," Tan says.
Advanced techniques like predictive analytics help identify future trends and plan interventions before problems materialise.
The real transformation comes from decision transparency. "At the end of the day, it is about decision transparency: leaders tracing how each major people decision is supported by credible data and evaluated alongside contextual judgment," he explains.
"Over time, it cultivates organisational learning where data is used as a form of foresight rather than hindsight."
Organizations that build this muscle stop reacting to workforce challenges and start anticipating them.
Communication as resilience infrastructure
When business conditions make hiring or upskilling difficult, communication becomes the foundation that prevents morale collapse.
"When hiring slows or budgets tighten, uncertainty can easily erode morale. What sustains engagement is not necessarily good news, but clear, credible, and consistent communication. Not any communication, but having empathetic conversations," Tan says.
Communication serves three specific functions during difficult periods, and each addresses a distinct threat to organisational stability.
"First, it prevents rumours. Anxieties among employees will manifest when facing with uncertainties. In this context, when an information vacuum occurs, rumours, fake news, and speculation will emerge, eroding trust among employees."
Silence creates more damage than difficult truths. When leaders avoid communication because the message is uncomfortable, they surrender control of the narrative to speculation.
"Second, it builds credibility. During difficult times, unpopular decisions has to be made. Hence, having honest, two-way opinions with empathy will address concerns and help employees understand the rationale for those decisions. In other words, it can help offset any negative effects the decision may have."
"Finally, communication foster work meaningfulness. Honest communication acts as a bridge, helping employees understand how their work contributes to a larger goal. It signals respect and instils confidence."
Tan frames communication as infrastructure, not messaging.
"In essence, communication is the human infrastructure of resilience. It connects people emotionally to the organisation's direction when structural levers are limited. It reminded employees that even in uncertainty, they are part of a purposeful journey forward."
Skills-first thinking for 2026
Looking ahead, Tan advocates for a fundamental shift in how organisations think about workforce capabilities.
"Adopt a skill-first mentality. With the labour landscape changing at a rate many businesses have not seen before, a skill-first mentality will shift employers' attention to what capabilities are needed, which are missing, and where new potential lies."
This approach unlocks internal talent pools that credential-based hiring overlooks.
"This approach allows leaders to identify transferable and adjacent skills that can be redeployed across functions, reducing dependency on external hiring. It also helps build a more inclusive workforce, as opportunities are based on demonstrated ability rather than credentials alone."
Data supports this transition. "Complementing the decisions would be leveraging data and analytics to make informed decisions on emerging manpower requirements, anticipate future needs, and design targeted initiatives that strengthen long-term organisational resilience," Tan concludes.
Ultimately, Tan argues that the widely cited “83% talent shortage” statistic from January 2025 oversimplifies reality.
He suggests that many hiring challenges stem from internal organisational issues rather than a true lack of talent in the market.
For companies shaping their 2026 strategies, he urges a shift in mindset: validate whether shortages are external or self-inflicted through poor practices.
Businesses should triangulate data, foster psychological safety to question assumptions, and maintain transparent communication during uncertainty.
Most importantly, adopting a skills-first approach, i.e., prioritising capability over credentials, can unlock internal mobility and reduce overreliance on external hiring. Those who do so will be far better equipped for 2026 than those still blaming a “dry market.”
