Measured hiring predicted for employees early this year, research shows
Job growth is predicted to continue early this year as indicated by an uptick in The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI).
The ETI went up to 113.15 in December in the U.S., a slight increase from the112.48 recorded in November.
Selcuk Eren, senior economist at The Conference Board, said this slight growth signals that employment will continue to grow in early 2024.
"The index has been on a gradual decline since its peak in March 2022, yet it remains notably above pre-pandemic levels," Eren said in a media release. "This suggests continued job additions in early 2024, albeit at a decelerated pace. We project a short and shallow recession starting in H1 2024 and negative payroll prints in the second part of the year."
The Conference Board said the increase recorded in December comes from the positive contributions from four out of the eight leading indicators of employment. These four indicators include:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get"
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
- Real Manufacturing
- Job Openings
Moderated hiring in 2024
The findings echo the recent findings that also said employers would continue hiring early this year amid talent shortages.
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for 2024 revealed that the overall Net Employment Outlook of employers was at 26%, up three per cent year-over-year, but down by four per cent from the previous quarter.
"The latest survey reveals that while employer hiring confidence has moderated slightly amid global economic concerns, labour markets remain tight and demand for skilled talent is still strong across multiple sectors," said ManpowerGroup Chairman and CEO Jonas Prising in a statement.
However, hiring in the first quarter of 2024 would be measured, according to the report, and employers would be slowed down by persistent talent shortages.
The report said the strongest hiring plans is recorded in North America with 34%. In other regions, hiring plans are:
- Asia Pacific (30%)
- South and Central Americas (28%)
- Europe, Middle East, and Africa (23%)
Strongest hiring plans have been recorded in India and Netherlands, both with 37%, according to the report. The weakest outlooks are logged in Hungary (10%), Japan (10%), Czech Republic (8%), and Argentina (2%).
