Is AI coming for your job?

MLC this week. Atlassian last week. Block the week before. The news of job cuts keeps coming, but who’s jobs at at risk? And if AI comes for you, will you be able to adapt and resell? The answer is, of course, “It depends."

As artificial intelligence reshapes the corporate landscape, human resources leaders are facing a stark reality: calculating which jobs will be automated is no longer enough. The true measure of workforce resilience lies in a worker’s capacity to adapt – and new data reveals a severe gender divide among those most at risk.

A new report by the Brookings Institution, titled Measuring US workers' capacity to adapt to AI-driven job displacement, warns that relying solely on AI exposure metrics fails to account for a worker's actual ability to navigate a shifting labour market. Instead, workforce planners must measure "adaptive capacity" alongside technical exposure to understand the true impact of automation.

The findings present a complex picture for HR professionals. On a positive note, the research indicates that, on average, highly AI-exposed workers are actually well-equipped to handle career transitions compared to the broader workforce. These individuals often possess the transferable skills, financial buffers, and geographic mobility needed to pivot.

However, the report highlights a critical vulnerability: approximately 6.1 million workers face the double threat of high AI exposure combined with low adaptive capacity.

While the Brookings summary notes that occupation-level measures alone cannot tell the whole story and that significant uncertainty remains regarding AI's ultimate impact on the labour market, deeper analysis of the demographic data paints a concerning picture for gender equality.

The gender penalty in the AI transition

When analysing whether women are more likely than men to lose jobs to AI, the broader data points to a resounding yes. According to expanded demographic data from the Brookings research, a staggering 86% of the 6.1 million workers identified as highly exposed and least adaptable are women.

This disparity is largely driven by occupational segregation. A recent brief from the International Labour Organisation (ILO) confirms that female-dominated occupations are almost twice as likely to be exposed to generative AI as male-dominated ones (29% Versus 16%).

Women remain heavily concentrated in clerical, administrative, and business support roles – such as payroll clerks, receptionists, and accounting assistants. These positions rely heavily on routine, codifiable tasks that generative AI can readily absorb. Conversely, male-dominated fields such as construction, manufacturing, and manual trades involve physical or non-routine tasks that are currently much harder to automate.

Furthermore, the ILO notes that women are largely locked out of the new opportunities AI is creating, comprising only about 30% of the global AI workforce. This means women are facing higher rates of displacement while simultaneously lacking the pathways to transition into the tech-centric roles replacing them.

The mandate for HR

For HR leaders, this data demands a strategic pivot. The Brookings report concludes that adaptability analysis is essential to reveal exactly who needs the most support to weather AI-driven job transitions.

Rather than applying blanket upskilling programmes across the board, HR departments must identify the hidden pockets of vulnerability within their own organisations. Support structures – such as targeted retraining, internal mobility pathways, and financial transition assistance –must be directed toward administrative and clerical staff who lack the inherent adaptive capacity of their executive or technical peers.

The AI revolution is not entering a neutral labour market. If corporate leaders fail to proactively manage this transition, the integration of AI risks reversing decades of progress in workplace gender equality.

According to the report's expanded data, here are the specific occupations highlighted as being the most highly vulnerable, along with their low adaptive capacity scores:

• Office clerks, general (2.5 million employed; 22% adaptive capacity)

• Medical secretaries and administrative assistants (831,000 employed; 23% adaptive capacity)

• Insurance sales agents (469,000 employed; 24% adaptive capacity)

• Interpreters and translators (53,000 employed; 29% adaptive capacity)

Conversely, the report notes that roles like software developers, financial managers, and lawyers also have high AI exposure, but boast adaptive capacity scores in the 96% to 97% range because those workers generally have the resources, networks, and advanced skills to successfully weather the transition.