Is AI blocking the hopes of a whole generation of new workers?
Australia’s supply of entry-level jobs continues to contract, leaving job seekers facing long odds and placing new pressures on HR teams already adapting to rapid workplace change. A new snapshot of the labour market shows that for every vacancy requiring minimal formal training or experience, there are now 39 people competing for that single role — the toughest conditions recorded in a decade.
Anglicare Australia’s latest Jobs Availability Snapshot found the ratio has deteriorated from 35 to 39 job seekers per entry-level role in just a year. Of those 39 people, 25 face barriers to employment, such as long-term unemployment, disability, or limited English skills. “That's the worst we've seen — and this is our 10th year of this snapshot,” Anglicare Australia executive director Kasy Chambers said.
Chambers said many candidates “are going to find it difficult” because they are competing with job seekers who do not share the same barriers and are increasingly applying for low-experience jobs to cope with the rising cost of living. She added that “there was likely greater competition than even we are measuring”.
The research paints an increasingly structural problem. Almost one in four people on JobSeeker have been receiving the payment for five or more years, compared with one in ten a decade ago. Chambers warned that long-term unemployment erodes job readiness: “Apart from the fact that you haven't had up-to-date training, you haven't got the networks, but also you've been existing on JobSeeker payments, which is less than half the poverty line, so you are likely to be getting a bit worn.”
She said people on low incomes often go without essential services. “Things like medication, dentistry, all those kind of things that many of us are lucky enough to take for granted, you're not going to be able to [access].”
The changing nature of work is accelerating that imbalance. Federal government data shows the number of job advertisements has fallen for three years, with the steepest drop — 37 per cent — in positions that traditionally serve as stepping stones for new entrants. Declines in occupations such as checkout operators and cashiers reflect a wider move toward automation and self-service.
Chambers said “entry-level jobs are under threat — and we need to do something about it,” arguing that the system is failing those who most need labour-market support. She criticised the current employment services model, saying it produces busywork rather than meaningful assistance. “We hear ridiculous stories about these employment service providers denying somebody the ability to go to a job interview because they want them to go to some training that day,” she said.
She cited examples where job seekers with partial capacity to work were pushed into training that physically strained them. Such practices, she said, “don't result in people getting good training, and they don't result in getting people into jobs.”
Anglicare is calling for the creation of new entry-level roles, particularly in the care economy, and for the overhaul of employment services so job seekers are matched to real opportunities. It also wants income support lifted above the poverty line. “We cannot keep pretending that JobSeeker is an interim payment for a couple of weeks just to get people over a bad patch,” Chambers said.
The organisation argues that “the jobs are not there, so it's not the person's fault — it is a structural issue.”
Pressure mounting from AI-driven shifts in early-career work
While Anglicare’s findings focus on labour demand, separate research suggests employers are also restructuring roles at the lower end of the skill spectrum. Jobs and Skills Australia has highlighted rising exposure of entry-level work to automation and generative AI, particularly in administration, manufacturing, customer support, IT and mining.
Some employers interviewed by JSA said they are already hiring “fewer entry-level engineers” as routine tasks are absorbed by AI tools. Although there is no broad decline across the entire early-career labour market, hiring expectations are shifting: fewer trainee and graduate roles in technology, tighter competition, and higher skill expectations for juniors entering the workforce.
The changing scope of work means entry-level employees are now expected to manage more complex tasks, exercise judgement earlier and be comfortable using AI-enabled systems. For HR managers, that means redesigning job descriptions, evaluating competency frameworks and planning for future capability gaps if fewer juniors enter the pipeline.
What HR managers need to watch
For HR leaders, the convergence of shrinking entry-level opportunities and rapid technological change presents several workforce challenges:
- A growing divide between job seekers’ baseline capabilities and employers’ evolving requirements
- Increased competition for the limited number of entry-level positions
- Risk of future skills shortages if junior cohorts continue to shrink
- Pressure to provide stronger in-house training, mentoring and AI-literacy programs
- Rising demand for roles that blend human judgement with technology oversight
Chambers has urged governments to intervene, “There are plenty of places where we could be creative, but while we ask the market to do everything for us, that's not going to happen.”
For HR leaders, the message is increasingly clear: early-career hiring is becoming more complex, more competitive and more strategic. The decline in entry-level vacancies is no longer a temporary labour-market fluctuation but a sign of deeper structural shifts — ones that will require employers to rethink how they recruit, train and support the next generation of workers.
