But expert notes that the next five years will remain ‘largely human’
Around 10.4 million jobs in the United States will be lost to artificial intelligence and automation by 2030, according to a new prediction, which notes that the future of work will remain “largely human.”
J.P. Gownder, VP, principal analyst at Forrester, issued the forecast predicting that 6.1% of jobs will be lost in the US because of the technology.
“To give you a sense of the magnitude, the US lost 8.7 million jobs during the Great Recession,” he said.
“The numbers aren’t directly comparable, since jobs lost to AI are structural and permanent while those lost during a recession are cyclical and macroeconomic. But no matter how you view it, the numbers are meaningful and worthy of our attention.”
The forecast comes following the emergence and adoption of agentic AI in workplaces, as well as the continued investments made by organisations in generative AI.
According to Gownder, the technology will have a bigger role in job losses in the future.
“Where our earlier forecast saw just 29% of US jobs lost to automation coming from genAI, that number is now 50%, which accounts for agentic AI solutions that leverage genAI, as well,” he said.
The findings come as job losses in the United States surpassed a million in 2025, based on data released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
AI has been cited for 54,836 job cut announcements in 2025, and has been cited in 71,825 job cuts since 2023 when the reason was first tracked.
Future remains ‘largely human’
Despite the looming AI-triggered job cuts, Gownder noted that more jobs will be “strongly influenced” by AI instead of being replaced by them.
“We see AI strongly influencing jobs (20%) more commonly than replacing them (6.1%) – 3.25x the impact,” he said. “That 20% represents a nearly fourfold increase compared with our 2023 forecast.”
He stressed that the US is not heading for an imminent AI job apocalypse, despite the technology making major shifts in how organisations operate.
“But in the next five years, the future of work will remain largely human. AI will take over increasing numbers of workflows and tasks, but workflows and tasks aren’t jobs,” the analyst said.
“Your strategy must invest in the people who use AI to improve their productivity and employee experience.”
