ILO calls for 'early' measures to prevent deepening impact from the crisis
The International Labour Organisation has warned that the crisis involving the Middle East may have more lasting impact on economies than COVID-19 did, as it called for early actions before the conflict's impact becomes harder to reverse.
ILO chief economist Sangheon Lee said the conflict in the Middle East is unfolding differently from the previous crises.
"Previous crises, including COVID-19, brought huge and immediate shocks, but recovery often began once restrictions eased and support measures were put in place," Lee said in a recent insight.
"The current crisis, coming on top of a series of polycrises, may unfold differently. Its effects may come more gradually, through repeated price shocks, uncertainty, weaker investment, disrupted migration systems and persistent strain on household incomes."
While the ILO has yet to determine the impact of the conflict in the world of work, Lee said that warning signs are already present.
"In the countries most directly affected, workplaces are damaged or destroyed, businesses are closing or operating only partially, wages are interrupted, and workers are losing both jobs and income," he said.
"Beyond the frontline, the effects are spreading through higher fuel and food prices, weaker hiring, delayed investment, disrupted migration, and falling remittances."
Job quality is also at risk, with informal jobs rising and working conditions worsening, according to the economist.
There are also concerns of a stronger downward pressure on wages, rising working poverty, increases in child labour, forced labour, as well as other harmful coping strategies.
"What begins as an external shock can leave deeper scars by weakening the conditions that make work decent, secure, and protected," he added.
Early focus on risks needed
Lee stressed that addressing these risks early will be necessary, even with governments facing the challenge with heavy debt and very limited fiscal space.
"Early attention to these risks matters, because once jobs, incomes and business capacity are lost, recovery becomes harder and more uneven," he said.
"When war destroys decent jobs, incomes and viable enterprises, it also weakens the sense of security and dignity that work can provide. And where decent work is in short supply, social tensions can rise, making it harder to restore trust, stability and ultimately peace."
Some of the measures that can help reduce pressure on employers and employees include temporary income support for affected households, wage and employment support where feasible, protection of core social protection delivery systems, as well as practical assistance to small enterprises facing disruption.
According to Lee, a wait-and-see approach to the crisis would be "risky."
"By the time the numbers move sharply enough to remove doubt, temporary shocks may already have hardened into lasting setbacks," he said.
"What is needed now is close attention to how these risks are unfolding, and early action to protect jobs, incomes and working conditions before the damage deepens and becomes harder to reverse."
The conflict in the Middle East erupted in late February after the United States and Israel launched airstrikes in Iran, which led to the death of its leader, Ali Khamenei.
A ceasefire has been in place since April 8, with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres calling for constructive talks for an agreement to be reached.
"At the same time, the ceasefire must absolutely be preserved. All violations must cease," said Stéphane Dujarric, Spokesperson for Guterres, in a statement.
