Cutting costs and focusing on leadership are some of the survival tactics advised for companies entering a year when nobody is sure what will happen. Sarah O’Carroll reports
“There is a decent risk that the first two quarters
of growth in 2009 could be negative” says Westpac’s
global head of economics, Bill Evans. Dr Chris Caton,
chief economist at BT Financial Group, also believes
there is a high chance Australia will enter into a reces
sion in 2009.
“We haven’t had one in 17 years and there is no
question that we will have another one some day -
so if the current conditions aren’t going to put us in,
what the heck will? ” Caton asks.
The recent OECD economic outlook report
revealed, however, that the forecast is not as grim for
Australia as for the other big economies of the world
– with 21 of the 30 member economies of the OECD
predicted to go through a protracted recession of a
magnitude not seen since the early 1980s.
Every economic outlook, however, is built on
uncertainties, so governments, economists, organi
sations, HR department and individuals can only look
at what has happened in the past to predict what will
happen next – and how best to deal with it.
Drawing to the end of 2008, nobody seems overly
confident in predicting what will happen and com
panies are treading uncertain water. But there is a
definite consensus that next year will present some
interesting challenges for companies across the coun
try. Firstly, declining commodity prices will take the
gloss of the Western Australia story next year but will
really hit home in 2010. “Commercial construction
and mining investment will support growth in 2009
as work continues on current projects but approvals
for new projects are falling sharply under the weight
of plummeting business confidence and limited credit
availability,” says Evans. “The brunt of the mining
and construction downturn will be borne in 2010
although plant and equipment investment which is
much more closely attuned to consumer spending
will weaken through 2009.”
Other challenges facing companies include rising
unemployment, a weak Australian dollar which will
put pressure on importers, and challenging funding
costs due to the cost and access to credit.
According to Caton, the industries that will be
most affected will be those that are traditionally cycli
cal (housing etc) and anything that is related to dis
cretionary spending either by consumers or business,
for example motor vehicles.
Paradox of thrift
How can organisations prepare themselves for an
expected slowdown, and such volatility?
The danger is according to Caton, when every
organisation tries to safeguard themselves from cer
tain effects, they ultimately make the situation worse
– creating a situation described as the paradox of
thrift. (see box)
However there is nothing any one individual can
do to avoid that economic paradox, he says, and
organisations will still have to react to the wider
knock-on economic effects in order to survive. Cut
ting costs and devising ways to deal with flat and
reduced revenues will be one of the key strategies
for most companies.
“Pull the horns in, be very cautious and cut your
cost base,” says Caton.
HR will be very much part of the survival strate
gies for companies in the year ahead, with a focus
on leadership and communication.
Daljit Singh, director of global talent management
for Baker and McKenzie, outlines some of the responses
he expects companies to focus on in the year ahead.
• A review of hiring needs, although do not expect
entry level (graduates) etc to be affected much.
• More focus on rigorous performance management
and on productivity measures.
• Encouraging staff to take leave, including sab
baticals, undertaking study etc.
• Encouraging some job sharing
• A drop in bonuses and smaller salary increases
• A cut in training expenditure that involves travel
and accommodation, with more training at local
locations, and using technology to involve dif
Never has there been a more important time for
leadership than now. Singh believes, as does lead
ership expert Professor Rob Goffee (see box, A
note from the UK), that there will a strong focus on
leadership and communication in trying to main
tain the morale and spirit of the workforce and keeping focus on key goals
“The organisations that will come out of this in a better shape will focus on
this and ensure that any costs reductions they make will not demoralise, and they
will be thinking longer term – eg encouraging people to undertake more devel
opment when productivity is lower than expected,” says Singh.
While Caton says that the pace of redundancies is likely to increase, Singh
believes that making redundancies should be a last resort for companies.
“They (successful companies) will also only reduce headcount when it’s
absolutely essential and, if needed, will do it in a humane, supportive and trans
parent way, in accordance with espoused values,” says Singh.
Unemployment a certainty
A rise in unemployment is a certainty, say economists. Caton explains that his
tory suggests that when the unemployment rate in Australia goes up, it either
goes up only a little bit or it goes up a lot.
“If unemployment goes to 6 per cent, which is predicted, with any velocity
it might not stop until it reaches 8 or 9 per cent,” he says. “How much it will
go up is not a certainty, but we can be certain it will go up.”
This suggests that the next upturn in the unemployment cycle will peak
around August or September 2010 and will probably be about 6.5 per cent.
“It is no guesswork that the OECD has also forecast unemployment peak
ing in late 2010,” says Steve Hinch of Roy Morgan Research. “If unemployment
peaks at 6.5 per cent, another 230,553 people will lose their jobs between now
and the last quarter of 2010.”
This, he says, will have a flow-on effect for firms that are not pricing their
products competitively and maintaining their brand preference.
“We already see firms freezing marketing expenditure,” says Hinch, “which
is a great way to lose market share quickly. And, according to our research,
even 230,000 people losing their jobs would mean a loss of around $288 mil
lion each week based on the medium weekly income of $1250 – and it is con
sumers that drive the economy.”.